PREAMBLE The purpose of this work is not to be right, Lord no, for we may be wrong. We do hope to plant a seed however, by singing The Song that we all once knew, back when our minds were free, so that those who might benefit from it can perhaps start to think another way than what we have been taught. Homer W. Smith Nov 1, 2021 Ithaca, NY. ABSTRACT This paper describes the Machine Certainty Theorem (MCT) and it's ramifications. The MCT states that a machine can not learn anything with perfect certainty. (Thus the MCT might better be called the Machine UNcertainty Theorem.) This statement depends on the definitions of machine, learn, and perfect certainty. A machine is defined as any system of parts interacting via cause and effect across a space time distance. A "space time distance" is later generalized to "dimension" which is later generalized further to "difference", i.e. two different objects. OBJECTS A object is anything that has qualities, and a quality is anything that describes an object in whole or in part. Objects have states described by their object quality set, the set of all qualities of that object, both alone and in relation to other objects. The object that learns is the 'learner.' The object that is learned about is the 'learned about.' The object that is between the learner and the learned about, providing the distance or difference between them, is the 'learned through.' LEARNING To learn is defined as coming to know knowledge about. Knowledge is a state in the learned that represents, renders or symbolizes a state in the learned about. Knowledge is gleaned by the learner from the learned about via cause and effect. The learned about is the cause and the learner is the effect, the knowledge learned is represened, rendered or symbolized in the learner as a change in state in the learner that then indicates its knowledge about the learned about. Without cause and effect there can be no learning as the effect IS the learning about the cause. PERFECT CERTAINTY Certainty is defined as perfect certainty. Perfect certainty is defined as learned knowledge which can not be wrong, ie knowledge one is sure is true without possibility of error. We discriminate false certainties where in the learner THINKS there is no possibility of error, from true certainties where there IS no possibility of error. REFERENTS AND SYMBOLS It is asserted that in the physical universe, all learning results from being the effect of some cause. The object which is cause is called the original referent. The object which is effect is called the symbol of final authority, meaning the last symbol in line that we choose to learn from. The cause produced by the referent and its causal qualities produces the effect which is a change in the qualities of the symbol. TRACKING Tracking is the fact that some qualities of the symbol are caused by and are thus tracking some qualities of the referent indicating a cause and effect relationship between referent and symbol. Because of the time involved in causal traversal from cause to effect, a symbol can only represent a referent as it WAS, never as it IS. Thus even a machine looking at itself via cause and effect can only know how it WAS, never how it IS. DATA The effect rendered in the symbol contains some data about the nature of the cause in the referent, and that effect IS the learning that takes place in the symbol about the referent. This is called Learning by Being an Effect. As effect does not prove cause with certainty, Learning by Being an Effect is only always theory. In the absence of being an effect there can be no learning. In the absence of cause there can be no learning. Since all learning is from effects brought about by a cause, all learning is about cause, namely how that theorectical cause lead to the observed effect in the symbol of final authority. Thus if cause is not involved, no learning can take place. This is also called learning by indirect perception. INDIRECT PERCEPTION Indirect perception means learning about A by looking at B, ie A's causal imprint on B. One studies the state of B to determine in theory the state of A. In this case B is the machine learning about A. In the absence of an effect or causal imprint on B by A, there is no learning by A about B. It is also asserted that "state does not prove prior state", ie any state a machine might be in, will never contain certainty that it was ever in a prior state. Thus it is concluded that a machine can not learn that it has changed state with (non theoretical) perfect certainty. The absence of perfect certainty of a change in state implies there must also be an absence of certainty that an effect was received, which implies an absence of certainty on any learning that might have been deduced from that effect about a cause. It is further asserted that correlation does not prove causation. By 'prove' we mean only to demonstrate the perfect certainty of. We do NOT mean merely to provide possible evidence for. Thus effects do not prove cause, therefore changes in state 'here' do not prove prior states 'there', either in the machine itself or elsewhere. 'Here' and 'there' mean two different points in either space or time or both. It will be shown that the key term is 'two different'. It is thus concluded that a machine can not be built to prove that there is a cause merely by looking at effects or changes in itself, EVEN IF IT COULD BE CERTAIN OF EFFECTS WHICH IT CAN'T. Since effects do not prove cause, and all a machine can do is BE an effect, no machine can learn with certainty that there is cause. In other words it is offered that because a machine learns by being an effect of causes, and because effect does not prove cause, a machine can never learn with certainty if cause even exists merely by studying effects, let alone learn the nature of that cause. The concept of an effect is native to a machine, because machines work by being an effect. But the concept of cause is non native to a machine. Cause and its nature forever remain a theory to a machine, not a directly perceived perfect certainty. IN CONCLUSION Because a machine can only learn by being an effect, and because a machine can not learn with certainty that it has changed state, and because a machine can not learn with certainty that a change in state was caused, it is concluded that a machine can not learn with certainty about anything, which includes cause, effect, space, time, or the existence of anything including itself. The important application of the MCT is in the reverse, to wit since consciousness CAN learn with perfect certainty a number of things, including its own existence, perception of two different colors, and personal agency (causation), one is led to conclude that consciousness is not a machine, that is consciousness is NOT using indirect perception to learn about itself, but instead is using direct perception by looking at itself directly. DIRECT PERCEPTION Direct perception is an oxymoron in the physical universe, but is defined as learning about cause by looking at cause rather than by looking at effects of that cause. That learning about cause by looking directly at cause is so incomprehensible to the human physical mind, the ability to do so has escaped human attention until now. It also needs to be pointed out the irony that consiousness which learns ONLY through direct perception of itself, is non the less enslaved to pretending it lives in a physical mechanical universe that CAN ONLY learn through indirect perception. In the examples above where one is learning about A by looking at B, B is consciousness and A is the alleged physical universe, and EVERTHING we think we know about A comes from theorizing about what we see directly in B, our own consciousness. Homer